Mediation Pitfalls: When and Why Mediation Onset Might Trigger Hostilities

• In Event: Third Parties and Conflict Actors

Abstract

Mediation is perceived as an effective method of conflict resolution and is increasingly applied in disputes around the world. Paradoxically, Terris and Tykocinski (2021) found that in 42% of mediated conflicts that took place between 1995-2010, the mediator’s arrival triggered, at least in the short term, an increase, rather than decrease, in hostilities. Several processes may account for this counterintuitive finding. An increase in hostilities may serve strategic purposes such as signaling resolve or obtaining bargaining chips. The increase in hostilities may also result from more subtle psychological mechanisms: the mediator may act as an insurance policy, inspiring a sense of safety which distorts the parties’ perception of the risks contingent upon performing hostile acts. In addition, to the extent that the mediator is perceived as the “responsible adult” in the conflict setting, the disputing parties will expect the mediator to curb possible opponent retaliation to hostile acts, thus making such acts more likely. The goal of the current research is to unpack and explore these mechanisms. Using scenario methodology, we test the impact of different mediator characteristics such as rank, power and perceived impartiality, on the likelihood, magnitude and modality of proximal hostility escalation. A deeper understanding of mediation induced hostilities will inform both scholars studying conflict processes and practitioners operating in volatile mediation settings.

Authors

• Lesley G. Terris, Reichman University

• Orit Tykocinski, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya (IDC)