Abortion, Mobilization, and Vote Choice in the Post-Roe Era

• In Event: Investigating Public Opinion about Abortion and Women's Rights

Abstract

Heading into the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats seemed on the verge of dramatic losses given President Biden’s low popularity and historical patterns. Yet, the Democrats avoided this worst case scenario, holding onto their majority in the U.S. Senate and losing only a handful of seats in the House. Much of the news commentary concluded that the 2022 Dobbs decision, overturning the constitutional right to abortion, was a key factor in Democrats’ better than predicted performance. In short, the Dobbs decision shifted patterns of public opinion and voting intentions sufficiently to blunt the predicted red wave. This paper will engage in rigorous empirical analysis of the 2022 ANES midterm study, supplemented by the Fall 2022 PRRI study, as well as data from earlier election cycles, to explore if this conventional wisdom is accurate. The paper will address several related questions: How did the Dobbs decision shift what Americans think about abortion? Which groups were most likely to cite abortion as a key factor in their decision to turnout and how they voted? Historically, pro-life supporters and Republicans have ranked abortion as a higher priority than those identifying as pro choice and Democrats, but preliminary survey data suggests this changed in 2022. Additionally, how did post-Dobbs changes in public attitudes on abortion and intensity of abortion attitudes interact with longstanding demographic, religious, and partisan relationships with abortion attitudes to change the political landscape of the 2022 midterms?

Authors

• Laurel Elder, Hartwick College

• Steven Greene, North Carolina State University

• Mary Kate Lizotte, Augusta University