Plata o Plomo?: A Theory of Bribe and Punishment under Elections

• In Event: Studies of Organized Crime and Conflict Mini-Conference: Democracy under Assault: Theory and Evidence

Abstract

How do criminal organizations capture politicians and shape policy-making in electoral contexts? While recent scholarly work has documented how criminal groups may use a wide array of strategies such as bribes, voter mobilization, information suppression during campaigns, pre-electoral violence against voters and candidates, and post-electoral violence against incumbent politicians, little is known about the determinants that make criminal groups choose their strategies. I develop a formal model to understand under which conditions criminal groups choose different strategies and emphasize the plausible mechanisms under which different strategies might affect turnout and the competitiveness of elections.

Author

• Martin Castillo Quintana, University of Chicago