Inequality, Institutions, and Democratic Erosion

• In Event: Polarization in Latin America: Multiple Dimensions and Varied Effects

Abstract

Two dozen democracies have experienced democratic erosion in the opening decades of the 21st century, with elected presidents and prime ministers severely undermining their countries’ democratic institutions. What is causing this wave of erosion, and what factors leave some democracies especially vulnerable? We identify economic and institutional factors at play. Income inequality boosts the risk of erosion, in particular in wealthier countries. Inequality encourages a politics of grievance and polarization, widely cited in the literature as factors in erosion. We also show that parliamentarism reduces the risk of erosion. The relative ease of deposing a prime minister makes executive aggrandizement less likely, whereas term limits encourage presidents to violate constitutional constraints. We make use of an original cross-national dataset to estimate rare-events regressions, supplemented by closer study of the experiences of countries in which democracy did (or did not) erode.

Authors

• Eli Gavin Rau, Tecnológico de Monterrey

• Susan C. Stokes, University of Chicago