Job Growth and the Politics of Energy Transitions

• In Event: Comparative Politics and the Energy Transition

Abstract

Does job growth build public support for large-scale reforms? The notion that the provision of economic benefits generates the political will to back costly reforms underlies prominent examples of landmark legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and Obamacare. Some worry, however, that voters defy the logic of this approach because they only value the co-benefits of a policy if they also agree with its goals. We explore these arguments in the context of climate action which requires a clean energy transition that replaces carbon-based energy sources with renewables. We experimentally investigate three inter-related questions. First, we probe whether the provision of jobs tends to reduce opposition to clean energy transitions. Second, we investigate whether voters’ appreciation of such co-benefits depends on their agreement with the policy’s long-term goals. Third, we explore the role of other potential mechanisms that may explain the (lacking) appeal of job growth, including egoistic expectations about personal gains, beliefs about tax hikes, and aversion to rising public debt. Our evidence is based on an original survey fielded to a representative sample of the adult population in the United States. The results speak to emerging research on the drivers of political conflict over structural reforms and the feasibility of energy transitions needed to achieve “net zero” carbon emissions in one of the world’s largest emitter countries.

Author

• Michael M. Bechtel, Washington University in St. Louis