How Do Officials Evaluate Policy Evidence? A Survey of 3,000 Politicians

• In Event: Comparative Studies of Elite Political Behavior

Abstract

Policymaking often involves uncertainty. Politicians can minimize this uncertainty by relying on evidence to inform their decisions. However, the prospects of evidence-informed policymaking depend on the ability of decision-makers to discriminate between good and bad evidence. We study the ability of decision-makers to evaluate evidence in a large survey of local elected officials from six countries: France, Germany, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (N > 3,000). The study focuses on three specific concepts central to statistical literacy: convenience v. representative sampling, interpreting uncertainty, and selection bias. The results identify concrete steps that have to be overcome in order to foster evidence-based policymaking and provide a template for organizations communicating evidence to policymakers.

Author

• Miguel M. Pereira, London School of Economics