Memory, War, and Peace: Explaining EU Attitudes toward the Russo-Ukrainian War

• In Event: Attitudinal Responses to Violence

Abstract

When does historical memory transform attitudes about war and peace? This paper argues that individuals confronting sudden, unexpected events sometimes make sense of them by drawing on their knowledge of analogous past events. Comparisons with the past may in turn produce novel interpretations of the present, leading individuals to adopt new beliefs and engage in political action. To test this theory, I examine public opinion and events data in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Greece surrounding two unexpected events: Russia’s 2014 invasion of eastern and southern Ukraine, and Russia’s 2022 attempt to conquer Kyiv. Though superficially similar, the two crises produced dramatically different responses in European public opinion. Whereas the 2014 invasion led to relatively modest polling shifts in favor of Ukraine, the 2022 invasion provoked a massive public outcry that pushed political leaders to reshape the European security framework. I present evidence that the spread of images and rhetoric comparing the 2022 Russian invasion with the beginning of World War II helps explain the sudden transformation in attitudes toward the Russo-Ukrainian War. Drawing on geocoded survey and events data, I show that localities with more salient historical memories of World War II (through destruction levels, monuments, municipal commemoration, and proximity to concentration camps) recorded a greater shift toward pro-Ukraine attitudes and experienced more pro-Ukraine protests. This relationship increased after speeches by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who consistently framed ongoing events through a historical lens, and during historically-charged episodes like the reporting of Russian war crimes in Bucha. My analysis suggests that the lessons we draw from collective historical memory can have world-shaping impacts.

Author

• Eric Seth Mosinger, Santa Clara University