The Irredeemability of the Past: Determinants of Reconciliation and Revenge

• In Event: Reintegration and Reconciliation in the Wake of Islamist Armed Conflicts

Abstract

In the aftermath of violent conflict, citizens may worry that internally displaced persons (IDPs) have contributed to the conflict in some way. In many post-conflict settings, identifying former enemy collaborators versus innocent bystanders forced to flee violence is extremely difficult. All IDPs risk becoming stigmatized and face difficulties reintegrating into society. This work considers the role of moral disapproval and future social value in processes of post-conflict reconciliation with stigmatized IDPs. We run experiments embedded within a large-N, face-to-face survey across three areas of Iraq (n=4,500) that are experiencing the return of stigmatized IDPs, many of whom are suspected of having collaborated with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). We find that immutable factors related to a stigmatized IDP’s past behavior, namely the severity of a transgression and the volition behind it, are the strongest predictors of both reconciliation and revenge. Transitional justice mechanisms to signal the IDP's present and future redemption have little to no impact. Analyses employing cognitive and emotional statistical mediators further demonstrate that past behavior shapes justice intuitions because it simultaneously activates a past-oriented moral condemnation and a future-oriented heuristic assessment of the value and risks of associating with the stigmatized individual. This orientation towards past behavior is consistent irrespective of major individual differences including trust in the involved institutions, ISIS victimization, and ethnicity. These findings highlight the mounting challenges involved in transitional justice in the aftermath of violent conflict and suggests that fact-finding missions are key to re-integration of the millions of displaced persons IDPs currently in Iraq and elsewhere.

Authors

• Kristen Kao, University of Gothenburg

• Kristin E. Fabbe, European University Institute

• Michael Bang Petersen, University of Aarhus