Can Mediation Prevent Civil War in Self-Determination Disputes?

• In Event: Third Parties and Conflict Actors

Abstract

Mediation is a tool commonly used by international actors to convince disputants to choose compromise over violence. A large literature demonstrates that mediation can lead to longer-lasting peace agreements and reductions in violence in armed conflicts. Yet mediation frequently takes place before violence breaks out or after civil wars have ended. There is much less academic research on whether mediation can play a role in preventing the outbreak of civil war in pre- and post-conflict situations. To address this gap, we have collected systematic data on all mediation attempts in self-determination disputes from 1991-2015. This includes mediation taking place both outside of and within the context of civil war. We argue that mediation is particularly well suited to preventing disputes from escalating to violence. We conduct a series of statistical analyses examining whether mediation leads to a reduced risk of civil war in these disputes, as well as how mediation impacts levels of violence and nonviolence. We find that self-determination disputes that are not in armed conflict frequently experience mediation, and some evidence that mediation can contribute to the prevention of civil war in these disputes. The findings of this study contribute to both scholarly and practical understanding of mediation and conflict prevention.

Authors

• David E. Cunningham, University of Maryland, College Park

• Leo Bauer

• Megan Lloyd, University of Maryland