Poisoning Your Own Well: Misinformation, Voter Preference, Polarization in India

• In Event: Campaigns and Information in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Politicians frequently sponsor misinformation during election campaigns, but its effectiveness in shifting voter preferences is unclear. We argue that the efficacy of misinformation depends on whether it latches onto partisan or social cleavages. If misinformation primes social cleavages, it can persuade citizens who share the social identity that is being primed with misinformation, drawing in new supporters and increasing polarization. On the other hand, if misinformation is processed primarily along partisan lines, it appeals only to voters already supporting the misinformer, polarizing the party's own base. Our empirical analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment embedded in a representative in-person survey conducted after the 2021 elections in West Bengal, India. Our design mimics the opposition party’s use of campaign misinformation to polarize voters on issues of religion. We find that misinformation was largely ineffective, reinforcing partisan cleavages rather than cutting across them, resulting in within-party factions with divergent policy preferences.

Authors

• Ursula E. Daxecker, University of Amsterdam

• Neeraj Vimal Prasad, University of Amsterdam