Advisory Influence in Foreign Policy Decision-Making

• In Event: The Impact of Decision-Maker Attributes on International Security

Abstract

Why are some foreign policy advisers more influential than others? A new wave of scholarship explains when and how advisory systems shape foreign policy decision-making. However, it says little about which advisers get their way. We develop a theoretical framework to explain which advisers win policy debates, emphasizing how the individual-level traits shape an adviser's power. To test our theory, we introduce an original, first-of-its-kind dataset that codes the recommendations that over 232 advisers made during a random sample of 418 foreign policy deliberations with the U.S. president between 1947 and 1988. Our results have important implications for our understanding of the social and psychological origins of power in foreign policy decision-making.

Authors

• Tyler C. Jost, Brown University

• Joshua D. Kertzer, Harvard University

• Eric Min, UCLA

• Robert Schub, Rutgers University, New Brunswick