Perceptions of Electoral Integrity throughout the 2020 Election

• In Event: Electoral Integrity and Election Denial in the United States

Abstract

In three survey experiments conducted before, during, and after the 2020 Election, we investigated subject beliefs about the frequency of different types of voting irregularities and their emotional reactions to these problems. In study 1, we assessed beliefs about and reactions to counting fraudulent votes, failing to count legitimately cast ballots, and causing those who were eligible to vote to forgo doing so. On average, Republicans believe the first two types of errors are both more frequent and more troublesome than do Democrats, with the opposite pattern for forgone votes. Over time, these partisan gaps in beliefs grow only for frequency of fraudulently counted ballots, while Republicans become relatively more concerned about the seriousness of all types of errors. In study 2, we examined reactions to a vignette describing vote counting errors with multiple features and found that errors that benefit the opposition generated more negative reactions. Validating the study 1 results, this effect increased over time among Republicans. Finally, in study 3, we presented a conjoint survey experiment in which respondents had to choose ex ante between election rules that would yield different levels of turnout, fraudulent votes, and disqualified votes. When respondents select election rules, Republicans and Democrats react similarly negatively to increases in fraud and disqualified votes, while Democrats, but not Republicans, value higher overall turnout. Overall, these three studies contribute to a better understanding of voter beliefs about and reactions to potential threats to election security.

Authors

• John Cho, Stanford University

• Gregory Huber, Yale University

• Alan Gerber, Yale University