How Do European Voters Respond to Elite Polarization on Immigration?

• In Event: Voters, Parties and Responsiveness

Abstract

Much of the existing research on public attitudes to immigration focuses on the drivers and political consequences of voters’ anti-immigrant sentiment. However, we know less about mass polarization on this issue and the extent to which it is influenced by the party system polarization, a factor shown in previous research to affect public opinion on a variety of issues. This paper addresses this question by employing a two-pronged strategy. First, it relies on repeated cross-sectional survey data for seventeen European countries between 2002 and 2019 to analyse the relationship between mass and elite polarization on immigration in a variety of contexts and over-time. Second, it employs additional analyses with panel data and an instrumental variable approach, respectively, to more carefully address confounding and selection biases. Preliminary results suggest that citizens’ responses to party polarization on immigration depend on the election context. While elite polarization generates mass polarization in elections with radical right parliamentary breakthrough, it can actually decrease mass polarization in remaining elections. These findings highlight the potentially cross-pressuring effect of elite polarization on voters in specific electoral contexts.

Author

• Alina Vranceanu, Autonomous University of Barcelona