The Cost of Electoral Confidence

• In Event: Poster Session: Innovations in Public Administration Research & Experimental Research
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Innovations in Public Administration Research

Abstract

What does it take to make American voters more confident in the electoral process? Recent experimental work has explored questions along these lines, assessing voter trust as a function of information diets, endorsements of the electoral process by co-partisan elites, past experience, modes of voting, and election outcomes (Atkeson et al., 2007; Alvarez, Hall, and Llewellyn, 2008; Hall, Monson, and Patterson, 2009; Beaulieu, 2016; Burden et al., 2017; Alvarez, Cao, and Li, 2021; Sances and Stewart III 2015; Clayton and Willer 2023; Sinclair et al., 2018). We investigate whether individual voter appraisals about the accuracy and security of elections in the U.S. are anchored by how much is spent on them. Simply put, we explore whether voter confidence in the electoral process is a function of the cost of administering elections. In each election year, election administrators must make budgetary tradeoffs between the administrative costs of maintaining election infrastructure and planning for the future (e.g., maintaining registration databases, upgrading voting equipment, improving result reporting systems, training election officials) versus the costs of conducting each election (e.g., printing ballots, paying poll workers, renting polling places, mailing informational materials and ballots) (Mohr et al., 2018). Consequently, the extent of funding provided for conducting elections and how these funds are allocated can influence the manner in which voters cast their ballots. We give context and perspective to these decisions by exploring how they align with what voters believe are essential expenditures necessary to ensure integrity in the electoral process.

In this paper, we test a simple proposition: does "more money = more confidence?" Research in neuroscience, behavioral economics, and psychology suggests that consumers perceive higher priced products as being higher in quality (Compeau and Grewal, 1998; Krishna et al., 2002; Thaler, 1985; Zeithaml, 1988; Gerstner, 1985; Plassmann et al. 2008). We analogize such centrality of cost in evaluations to the conduct of elections, hypothesizing that increased spending on election administration increases voters' beliefs that elections are accessible, accurate, and secure. In a novel survey experiment fielded by YouGov, we assess (1) variation in voter perceptions of electoral integrity when spending varies; (2) how voters evaluate current levels of and changes to the funding of elections; (3) how current levels of election spending are viewed in comparison to other fiscal demands of local governments; (4) how voters believe election officials should prioritize time and money to improve how elections are managed. Our analyses also consider moderating factors that may explain why some voters would be sensitive to the cost of elections, including global attitudes regarding government spending; existing levels of mistrust in government or belief in election denialism; prior voting experiences; and demographic characteristics such as partisanship.

Our contributions to this growing body of literature on electoral confidence is three-fold. First, we shed light on the extent to which voters' beliefs that elections are accessible, accurate, and secure are a function of the amount spent on conducting elections. Second, we generate data on present-day voter knowledge of the electoral process. Finally, we provide practical advice on how to frame election spending in ways that resonate with voters and signal a bureaucratic commitment to safeguard the integrity of elections in this country.

Authors

• Alejandro Flores, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Joseph Ryan Loffredo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Charles Stewart, Massachusetts Institute of Technology