The Big Lie Lurked Online: Social Media and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity

• In Event: The Big Lie on Social Media

Abstract

Who won the 2020 presidential election? For Democrats, Joe Biden was victorious. He was inaugurated on January 20, 2021 and began serving as the 46th President of the United States. For Republicans, the response was a bit more complicated. While many members of that party re-elected to the U.S. Senate and House did not claim that their own elections in 2020 were rigged, rumblings about electoral fraud were touted by former President Donald Trump. These intimations turned into Trump’s “Big Lie” that he had won the presidential election. The “Big Lie” grew over time (Blake, 2021). Just a month ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, a majority of Republican candidates had “denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election” (Gardner, 2022).

But how did everyday Americans think and feel about such matters? This study examines how people’s perceptions of electoral integrity going into the 2020 election related to their media habits. Specifically, it builds on work on social media use connected to how ambient news makes people feel informed, on how a “news finds me” mindset magnifies what is spread by social networks and limits additional news-seeking, and how individuals who receive most of their information from social media report lower levels of political knowledge and higher levels of conspiratorial thinking (Enders et. al, 2021; Enders et. al, 2022; Gil de Zuniga & Diehl, 2019; Gil de Zuniga, Weeks, & Ardevol-Abreu, 2017; Hermida, 2010). It also draws on research on perceptions of electoral integrity, particularly studies addressing how journalists and newsrooms, elections officials, and even educators can communicate about threats to elections in ways that do not make them worse (Fessler, 2022; Jarvis & Han, 2018; Park-Ozee & Jarvis, 2020; Searles & Mann, 2022).

This study relies on data from the Texas Media & Society Survey (TMASS), created by the Annette Strauss Institute for Civic Life at the University of Texas at Austin. Fielded by Ipsos Public Affairs using KnowledgePanel, it employed a probability-based sampling strategy to recruit participants. 3,232 were sampled for participation and 2,113 completed the survey. Data collection took place between October 9, 2020 and October 19, 2020. The survey included items about media consumption, perceptions of electoral integrity, politics, and civic engagement. It was available in both English and Spanish languages.

The timing of this survey offers a glimpse into people’s media diets and perceptions of electoral integrity in the weeks before Election Day. Donald Trump had been voicing concerns with “rigged” elections since 2016, conservative social media influencers had been recirculating such claims, and major social media outlets had not taken down what many felt was misinformation about the election (Barrett, 2022; Dwoskin & Merrill, 2022).

The results rely on cross-tabulations of categorical responses to the selected survey questions with statistical significance calculated using the chi-squared test statistic. Strength of relationship was tested using Cramer’s V. All results reported below are significant (p < 0.05). Statistical tests were run using Stata 17.0.

The findings reveal how individuals who reported social media was the most common way they received their political news were more likely to anticipate the election would be contested, to believe Trump would win, and to fear the potential of voter fraud than others in the sample. Social media users, too, reported being less likely to support election results, and even less interested in voting than individuals with more balanced media diets. The study presents these data, exposes how social media users may have been predisposed to anticipate—and be open to—Trump’s “Big Lie,” and advances questions for future research on social media use and perceptions of electoral integrity.

Much of the work on social media connects to information gain and political knowledge. The key goal of this study is to invite audiences to also consider how social media use might shape how Americans think and feel about American institutions. Elections are important and imperfect. How they are depicted, in social media as well in legacy coverage, merits careful surveillance.

Authors

• Sharon E. Jarvis, University of Texas, Austin

• Dakota Park-Ozee, University of Denver