Understanding Individual Incentives to Invest in Rebel Parties

• In Event: Enduring Effects of Rebel Governance

Abstract

Political parties with origins in violent groups are often forged out of peace processes, a phenomenon known as rebel-to-party transitions. International policymakers have often promoted such transitions from civil war based on the intuition that the long-term political inclusion of ex-combatants may generate lasting peace. Scholars have devoted much attention to understanding the determinants of rebel-to-party transitions and their effect on peace. However, whether and why former rebels become long-term electoral contenders - the purported aim of electoral transitions - remains unclear. By some estimates 20\% of rebel parties do not persevere past the first election. What explains individual ex-combatant decisions to continue investing in the rebel party after transition? This project studies individual commitments to the former FARC political party Comunes and investigate explanations for variation in the level and type of commitment to the political process. Specifically this project seeks to answer three sets of questions. First, who are the individuals that are actively engaged with the party, and what explains differences in the membership decisions among ex-combatants? I've designed a case-control study with Comunes party members and broader FARC ex-combatants to assess explanations rooted in interviews conducted with party leaders, members and government officials. Second, how have leadership provisions shaped the level and type investment in the Comunes party? I conduct a survey experiment that consists of varying the salience of the guaranteed seats, and their expiration, and evaluating the impact on their preferences, their decisions and the extent of their effort. And third, how has implementation of the agreement impacted incentives to invest in the party? I embed a second survey experiment that varies highlighting the challenges versus the achievements in the Colombian government's implementation of the peace agreement.

Author

• Maria I Curiel, Stanford University