Presidential Campaigns, Misinformation, and Consequences

• In Event: The Presidency and Misinformation

Abstract

Over ten years of research at Harvard, the University of Cambridge and Johns Hopkins using insider interviews and new internet data sources showed how largely unexamined presidential campaign decisions shaped future presidents' policies, teams, and their administrations' outcomes. Both the current spread of mis or disinformation among voters and the flexible, unstructured nature of many presidential campaigns brings significant risks of mis and disinformation impacting the future presidents' world views, policies and advisers at this critical stage.

This paper will use the framework built in earlier papers and an upcoming book to examine how ideas, policies and advisers linked to mis or disinformation took root during the 2016 and 2024 campaigns. In the case of the winning candidates, Trump in 2016 and Biden and 2024, it will evaluate how these campaign mis or disinformation factors impacted later administration results.

The final section of the paper will examine the early stages of 2024 candidates' campaigns up to the weeks before the APSA Annual Meeting. Specifically, it will use the earlier framework to examine how mis and disinformation has impact their campaigns so far and the potential ramifications for each candidate if elected.

Author

• Steven Patrick Schrage, Johns Hopkins University