Why Autocrats Adopt Succession Rules

• In Event: Political Succession and Elite Survival in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

Why do autocrats formalize succession rules? The prevailing argument is that weak autocrats adopt succession rules to stabilize their rule and prolong their time in power. I argue, in contrast, that more secure autocrats adopt succession rules because they can ward off coups from the designated successor. I test my argument on autocrats from 1946 to 2008 with a novel machine-learning measure of survival probability. I find support for my hypothesis: Autocrats who are more likely to survive are more likely to have successors. My results challenge existing theories of autocratic succession and show the importance of studying institutions as dependent variables in competitive authoritarianism.

Author

• Sam Sharman, Texas A&M University