Technology, Cost, and Incidence of Conflict

• In Event: State Building and War in Europe since 1200

Abstract

Why did the amount of conflict in Europe increase between the medieval and early modern periods? We address this question with a focus on the changing relative effectiveness and cost of offensive and defensive conflict technology, including artillery, advanced fortifications, and standing armies. We present a general equilibrium model that characterizes the relationship between states’ preparation for conflict and the amount of total conflict as a function of the relative effectiveness of offense vs. defense and the cost of waging war. We test the implications of this model using detailed spatial data on investment in fortifications in Europe and the exact locations of battles. We find that as the levels of conflict increase in Europe, the locations of conflicts are increasingly concentrated around high-value targets that receive the most expensive defensive investments.

Authors

• Casey Petroff, University of Rochester

• Michael-David Mangini, Yale University