Populism, Foreign Policy, and International Crises

• In Event: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

Abstract

Existing literature has attributed the rise of populism to either the supply side (opportunistic political actors) or the demand side (populist attitudes among voters). However, this literature fails to study the drivers and motivations behind the foreign policy decision-making of populist leaders. We argue that the activation of populist attitudes due to various demographic changes among voters compels political leadership to make risky, dangerous foreign policy decisions that result in an international crisis. The strong appetite for quick results among the electorate forces politicians to take so-called “bold” but dangerous foreign policy decisions. Where the populist electoral base has contempt for political elite and establishment, populist leaders have a disdain for global norms and institutions. This research is important because it can fill up the existing gap between populist politics and foreign policy decision-making. Through a combination of process tracing and computational text analysis, we will demonstrate this phenomenon. Our research focuses on three cases where populist politics resulted in an international crisis. Donal Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, India’s decisions to test nuclear weapons in 1998 and to revoke article 370 in the disputed region of Kashmir are perfect examples of populist leaders making risky foreign policy decisions that led to an international crisis.

Author

• Shaarif Sameer, University of Utah