The Political Geography of Manufacturing Decline in the US (1980-2016)

• In Event: Mini-Conference on Politics in Post-industrial Societies III: Place, Identity, and Grievances amidst Economic Crises

Abstract

The aim of this study is to critically evaluate whether manufacturing job loss changed American electoral politics, and in particular has it increased support for the Republican party. We go beyond previous literature in three aspects. First, we examine the relationship over a long run-perspective, analyzing over four decades of manufacturing decline. Second, we measure deindustrialization and the decline of the manufacturing sector in the economy in numerous different ways. Finally, we adopt a place-based view for our analysis, taking into consideration the fine-grained geographical pattern of experience with deindustrialization. To do so, we pool electoral results with local administrative data of different manufacturing sub-industries from 1980-2016. Using a difference-in-difference framework, our study finds no evidence that manufacturing job loss has impacted the relative popularity of the Republican or Democratic party in US presidential elections from 1980 to 2016. In a cross-sectional analysis at the county level, we also find no significant relationship between the decline of manufacturing employment and the vote for Trump. This null result is robust to various model specifications and different measurements of deindustrialization. Our findings show the importance of the long run to study the presumed consequences of deindustrialization. Finally, we explore how the geography of manufacturing sub-industries (such as textile, automotive and mining) contribute to this and describe the political implications of local manufacturing sector specialization.

Authors

• Anne Jeannet, University of Milan

• Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu, University of Milan