Electoral Reactions to Economic Crises

• In Event: Mini-Conference on Politics in Post-industrial Societies III: Place, Identity, and Grievances amidst Economic Crises

Abstract

How do voters respond to economic crises: do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extensive data on elections held in 22 countries for over half a century, we document a systematic pattern whereby economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right. Three main forces underlie this pattern. First, voters tend to decrease support for the party heading the government when the crisis erupts. Second, after crises voters tend to grow more nationalistic and assign greater importance to law and order, issues typically owned by the right. This shift also corresponds with a higher turnout among right-leaning voters. Third, when center-right parties preside over a crisis, their voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left. The far right thus serves as an effective lightning rod, helping keep the center right in power even when facing post-crisis disaffection by its traditional supporters.

Authors

• Yotam Margalit, Tel Aviv University

• Omer Solodoch, University of Pennsylvania