(iPoster) Losing Military Leaders in Interstate Battles

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security I

Abstract

Does the loss of a military leader in battle make a state less likely to win that battle? Leadership decapitation is a strategy that often focuses on a head of state, but this need not be the case. Decapitation strikes can – and have – target military leadership in interstate wars with the hope of benefiting from the disruption such a strike can cause. But if deliberate strikes can induce confusion in a fighting force, are there similar impacts from all forms of leadership loss when it comes to military leaders and the battles they command? Thus, this paper examines how various forms of leader loss – from accidents to non-targeted fire to decapitation strikes – impact battle outcomes in interstate wars. To do so, I utilize my Interstate War Leader Loss Dataset and apply those losses to Eric Min’s Interstate War Battle dataset. I then use ordinal logistic regression to identify the effect of losing a military leader on the outcome of battles. The results indicate that the loss of military leaders in battle has significant effects on battle outcomes. Furthermore, this paper finds that leadership losses in battles are associated with a greater impact on autocratic regimes than on democratic regimes. Finally, the results also suggest that the loss of a given leader has a larger impact at their particular level of responsibility, and so the loss of military leaders, while notable on the outcome of battles, may not significantly impact the outcome of interstate wars.

Author

• Jeremy Sunshine, United States Air Force