Inevitable Progress? The Puzzle of Diverging Trajectories in Female Labor Participation Rates among Post-1980 Globalizers

• In Event: 155 - Regular Session. Women's Work in a Globalizing World

Abstract

The literature on development and female labor force participation rates (FLPR) argues largely for an inevitable rise in equality between men and women. This paper examines the empirical puzzle of FLPR among “post-1980 globalizers”, nations that have embraced the current era of globalization’s ethos of export orientation and trade barrier reduction. Among post-1980 globalizers, progress has been made in Latin America in terms of FLPR growth. However, in the rest of the world, stagnation and decline in FLPR are prevalent, notably in India, China, Thailand and the Philippines. This paper looks for structural explanations to explain this bifurcation between post-1980 globalizers in Latin America and the rest of the world, and whether this trend may last. Hypotheses are tested against: the U-curve hypothesis; fertility, education and urbanization; exports and services; economic liberalization; geographic regions and religions. No evidence of a U-curve is found. Education and urbanization are factors, though when only considered with geographic regions. Evidence against economic liberalization is found, with GDP/cap. growth, exports, and policy liberalization coinciding with declines in FLPR. Strong evidence is found for geographic regions and religion influencing FLPR. A growth model fitting FLPR trends in the past thirty finds strong evidence of a stable linear pattern in FLPR trajectories, providing no evidence that this bifurcation is lessening.

Author

• Manish Nag, Princeton University