Decomposing Trends in Child Obesity

• In Event: 2184 - Section on Medical Sociology Refereed Roundtable Session
  In Refereed Roundtable 60min: Table 02. Obesity, Body Weight, and Diet

Abstract

Although much research is devoted to understanding the observed rise in childhood obesity, the overwhelming majority of studies focus almost exclusively on how childhood factors influence obesity in adulthood. We unravel the absolute level and relative prominence of two demographic processes that are particularly relevant for obesity in childhood, and that will ultimately determine the long-term course and pace of change in child obesity rates. We leveraged data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to decompose change in child obesity from 1971 to 2012. We partitioned change into that attributable to (1) healthier, more nutritionally and economically advantaged cohorts in the population being replaced by cohorts of children who are less advantaged (between-cohort change), and (2) the health habits, nutrition, and social and economic circumstances of all cohorts of children worsening over time (within-cohort change). The rise in obesity among children aged 2 to 19 years old was solely due to intracohort change driven by variation in food security composition and in the diet of the population over time. Child obesity in the population rose largely because of individual increases in weight status that were broadly distributed across age and cohort groups. Smaller but significant cohort replacement slightly attenuated these intracohort change effects over the study period, leading to a more gradual increase in obesity. Our results provide some reasons for optimism. Given that population estimates of child obesity rose because the typical member of all cohorts became heavier over time at all stages of the early life course, successful policy and health interventions that are broadly targeted across all ages and generations have the potential to quickly slow or reverse the upward trend in childhood obesity.

Authors

• Ashley Wendell Kranjac, Chapman University

• Robert L. Wagmiller, Temple University