A Woman-Centered Biosocial Interaction Theory of Historic Fertility Decline

• In Event: Biology and Society Section Open Call Paper Session

Abstract

BACKGROUND
We begin with our first proposition based on the biological observation that women are sole child-bearers and primary child-rearers. This implies (1) nearly all factors influencing fertility operate through women; (2) we must look for key individual-level drivers of fertility decline in women. This reasoning leads to our second proposition: despite biological differences in reproduction, women possess inherent life aspirations that are essentially similar to those of men.

Historically, these aspirations were largely suppressed, with relentless childbearing and childrearing becoming women’s destiny. However, as modernization fosters gender equality—granting women greater awareness of alternative life paths and reproductive autonomy—a sharp fertility decline becomes inevitable. We argue that this dynamic is the most fundamental driver of fertility decline.

The antinatalist forces driving the decline are counterbalanced by enduring pronatalist ones, resulting in a largely irreversible fertility equilibrium in low-fertility countries. We demonstrate the explanatory power of our model through examples, and contrast it with existing theories. Given the root cause of fertility decline, we advocate for gender-equity programs as a long-term strategy to positively disrupt the current below-replacement fertility equilibrium. Such equity requires acknowledging and fairly compensating women for their disproportionately heavy reproductive role.

CONTRIBUTIONS
By recognizing the biological centrality of women in reproduction, we (1) develop a novel theory that explains the historic fertility decline and sheds light on the current fertility swing in low-fertility countries; (2) identify a fertility equilibrium produced by competing natalist forces; (3) propose a gender-equitable, long-term fertility strategy.

Author

• Guang Guo, UNC Chapel Hill