The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in U.S. Counties, 2010-2022

• In Event: Capital, Communities, and Climate: How Local and Corporate Actors Shape Environmental Futures

Abstract

The subnational drivers of carbon emissions remain an understudied issue in the sustainability literature with significant implications for our understanding of how the anthropogenic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions operate at different geographical scales and for policymaking. Here, we examine the effect of economic growth on carbon emissions for U.S. counties using data from 2010 to 2022. Using a novel estimation approach, we find that economic growth leads to increases in emissions in both the short-run and long-run. We present simulated estimates of the changes in total CO2 emissions across the U.S. over a decade for low, median, and high economic growth scenarios. Pooled estimates suggest that emission increases range from 55,135 metric tons in the low growth scenario to 60,047 metric tons in the high growth scenario. The heterogeneous model predicts larger effects ranging from an increase of 578,149 metric tons in the low growth scenario to 695,412 metric tons in the high growth scenario. These findings suggest that economic growth remains a key driver of emissions in the U.S. and indicate that the relationship between the two has not decoupled.

Authors

• Ryan Thombs, Penn State University

• Andrew K. Jorgenson, University of British Columbia

• Paige Kelly, Penn State University

• J. Huntley Compton, Pennsylvania State University

• Hannah Z Hendricks, Penn State University