The Societal Determinants of Climate Risk for Refugees: A Corridor Analysis of Origin and Host Countries

• In Event: Global and Transnational Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 6. Migration Experiences I

Abstract

Research provides ample evidence on how climate hazards influence migration patterns, but less attention has been given to climate risks faced by displaced populations. This study analyzes refugees’ climate risks in their origin and destination countries, focusing on global trends and providing a case study of Africa—a region hosting large numbers of refugees and facing severe climate risks. Drawing on the Climate-driven INFORM Risk Index and UNHCR Population Statistics from 2013 to 2022, we study three sub-dimensions of climate risk: hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. We then apply a migration corridor analysis to study how climate risks (low, medium, or high) evolve when refugees move from origin to host countries. Our analysis reveals a global rise in the number of refugees originating from countries with high overall climate risk and finds that 75% of global refugees reside in high or medium climate risk host countries. In Africa, we find that shorter-distance displacement—particularly to neighboring or regional host countries—reduces exposure to hazards but not overall climate risk, as many refugees remain in countries with high levels of social and institutional vulnerability and low levels of coping capacity. Those who are able to travel longer distances, particularly intercontinentally, typically face lower climate risks. Our findings underscore the societal determinants of climate risk for refugees: hazard exposure alone does not determine climate risk; rather, social and institutional vulnerability play a decisive mediating role.

Authors

• Kerilyn Schewel, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill

• Sonja Fransen