Clusters of Risk: Parole, Correlated Adversity, and Mortality After Prison

• In Event: Criminal Legal System and Other Societal Institutions: Open Call Paper Session

Abstract

People released from prison to parole face elevated risks of premature mortality, yet deaths occurring during community supervision remain poorly documented and theoretically underdeveloped in research on mass incarceration and health disparities. This paper will examine how correlated forms of social and institutional adversity during parole combine to shape mortality risk in the first year following release. Using administrative data from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections that include individuals released to parole between 2007 and 2021 (N=36,847), we identify latent classes of housing instability, unemployment, substance use, mental health classification, and technical violations. We then link these classes to mortality outcomes using Bolck, Croon, and Hagenaars (BCH) methods that account for classification uncertainty. Results reveal four distinct classes of parole experiences, two of which are associated with substantially elevated mortality risk, though through different mechanisms. One high-risk class is characterized by intensive surveillance and drug test failure with elevated mortality regardless of age, while another is relatively socially stable but shows sharply increasing mortality with age. These findings underscore the need to conceptualize parole as a site of stratified health risk and raise questions about how deaths and premature mortality during community supervision should be systematically studied, documented, and addressed.

Authors

• Jessica T. Simes, Boston University

• Claudia Anderson, Florida State University

• Jaquelyn Jahn, Drexel University