How Political and Social Contexts condition the Integration-Settlement link among Ukrainian Refugees in Germany

• In Event: International Migration Section Refereed Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 17. Refugee resettlement

Abstract

Social integration and settlement intentions are increasingly theorised as mutually reinforcing over time, yet most empirical evidence remains focused on labour migrants or structural integration, while treating the integration–settlement nexus as largely context invariant. We argue that this is a conceptual and empirical blind spot: refugees form social ties under varying political climates and ethnic opportunity structures. Drawing on theories of social embeddedness and migration aspirations, we argue that both hostile political climates and co-ethnic embeddedness may increase costs and reduce expected returns to social integration. Hence, political and social environments condition whether and how social integration and settlement intentions amplify one another. We tested this claim using five waves of the probability-based IAB–BiB/FReDA–BAMF–SOEP panel of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, which we linked to the municipality-level shares of Ukrainian residents and vote shares of the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in the 2025 federal election. We estimated random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs) to isolate within-person dynamics net of time-invariant heterogeneity and assessed contextual moderation via group comparisons across local political and social contexts. Preliminary results showed bidirectional within-person effects between social integration and settlement intentions. More frequent contact with Germans predicted stronger subsequent intentions to stay, and stronger settlement intentions predicted later increases in contact. However, the magnitude of this reciprocal relationship varied systematically by context. In hostile political environments, contact with Germans became especially consequential for strengthening settlement intentions, while permanent settlement intentions no longer translated into greater subsequent contact. In low co-ethnic contexts, contact with Germans was most strongly associated with later intentions to stay, and, conversely, settlement intentions with later contact. Together, the results underscore that reciprocal integration–settlement dynamics are context dependent: political climate and ethnic composition structure the opportunities under which social ties strengthen settlement plans and conversely.

Authors

• Leona Przechomski, University of Cologne, Department of Sociology and Social Psychology, Germany

• Karelis Olivo Rumpf, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany

• Johanna Gereke, University of Mannheim

• Andreas Ette, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany