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Transgender Identification in the U.S. by Birth Sex and Cohort: Explaining the Emergence of Nonbinary

Sat, August 8, 4:00 to 5:30pm, TBA

Abstract

Since about 2014, the transgender population has undergone sudden and unprecedented changes. The rapid increase in trans identification has been widely noted but the less overt, more interesting features of this expansion are how and among whom it has occurred. A further inspection of trans identification indicates that the main driver of growth is the emergence and preeminence of a nonbinary gender identity, which is largely claimed by those ascribed female at birth born after 1990. This development reverses the historically fixed natal sex distribution that had previously skewed toward natal male trans women. Per the BRFSS 2014-2023, natal females have come to comprise the strong majority of trans people, with trans men now outnumbering trans women and natal female nonbinary people being the most populous trans identity. These consequential developments merit distinct attention; foregrounding birth sex and cohort is essential to analyzing the rising rates of trans identification.

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