Demographic Change, Automation, and the Energy Intensity of Growth

• In Event: Environmental Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 5: Political Economy, Capitalism, and Markets

Abstract

Rapid development of automation technology, including generative AI and robotics, has become a leading driver reshaping the paradigms of economic growth. Particularly, China and the United States are in a race for human capital, technological advancement, and infrastructure to lead this new phase of industrial development. Also, developed countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea are rapidly integrating robotics and AI into manufacturing processes. From the perspective of ecological modernization theory, these technological innovations might reduce energy consumption and the carbon footprint of growth by optimizing production processes with higher energy efficiency. In contrast, treadmill of production theory views automation as a new engine of capitalist expansion that reduces labor costs, extends production capacity, and increases energy use and emissions. Between these competing perspectives, this study aims to examine whether automation leads to ecological efficiency or intensifies energy consumption. Additionally, I argue that demographic shifts due to population aging and low fertility drive higher adoption and investment in automation technologies in developed nations. As labor costs rise and working-age populations decline, automation offers an alternative source of productive capacity that may lower costs and sustain growth. However, because automation is both capital- and energy-intensive, these transitions may generate divergent trajectories of energy intensity across Global North nations. In this research, I aim to answer the questions: How does automation mediate the relationship between demographic shift and energy intensity of economic growth? Does the impact of automation on energy intensity differ across developed nations with varying labor market structures? What implications do these shifts have for the global political economy of technology and energy? By integrating demographic, technological, and environmental dimensions, this study contributes to the theoretical and empirical understanding of how automation reshapes both economic and ecological sustainability in the perspective of global political economy.

Author

• Taekyeong Goh, University of British Columbia