Population Change and Housing Affordability: A Grid-Based Analysis of Milan’s FUA (2011-2021)

• In Event: Community and Urban Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 14: Urban Mobility and Migration

Abstract

Rising housing demand and increasing real estate prices have intensified affordability challenges across major urban regions worldwide. In Italy, these dynamics intersect with long-term demographic decline, internal migration, and growing socio-spatial inequalities. While many metropolitan areas face population stagnation or shrinkage, Milan represents a notable exception. Over the past decades, the Milan Functional Urban Area (FUA) has attracted both internal and international migrants, becoming one of the country’s most dynamic demographic and economic hubs. However, this growth has unfolded alongside rising housing prices, a predominantly private housing tenure structure, and stagnant wages, raising concerns about income-based sorting and differential access to housing.

This paper investigates the spatial relationship between population change, housing price dynamics, and income variation in the Milan FUA between 2011 and 2021, with specific attention to differences between native and non-native residents. Adopting a diachronic and micro-scale perspective, we harmonise census, real estate, and income data onto a 100×100 metre regular grid using areal interpolation techniques, ensuring comparability across census waves and overcoming boundary inconsistencies. We compute average annual population growth rates, percentage changes in sale and rental prices, and inflation-adjusted income variation at the grid-cell level.

Preliminary results reveal differentiated spatial patterns. Native population change appears spatially scattered, whereas non-native growth is more spatially clustered and concentrated, particularly within the municipal boundaries of Milan. Housing prices—especially rents—have generally increased across the FUA, although with significant local heterogeneity. Income dynamics display a fragmented geography, with growth concentrated in the urban core and selected commuter belts, and relative decline in peripheral areas.Ongoing spatial autocorrelation and regression analyses will further assess whether housing market dynamics and income variation are associated with distinct patterns of population growth or substitution between native and non-native groups. By integrating demographic and housing processes at a fine spatial scale, the study contributes to understanding income-based sorting and emerging inequalities in contemporary metropolitan contexts.

Authors

• Federico Benassi, Università Degli Studi di Napoli, Federico II, Italy.

• Igor Sebastian Costarelli, Università di Genova, Italy

• Antonio De Falco, Università di Genova, Italy

• Niccolò Morelli, Università di Genova

• Lorenzo Barbanera, Università di Genova, Italy

• Emanuele Cinti, Università di Genova, Italy