Cohort Estimates of Childlessness for U.S. Women Born 1914-2002

• In Event: Structural Constraints on U.S. Fertility

Abstract

In this study , we provide cohort estimates of childlessness for U.S. women born 1914-2002. Our analyses use data from two sources: (1) data on all U.S. births from the U.S. birth registration system and (2) individual-level fertility histories from the fertility supplements to the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys. We use these data to estimate childlessness at various ages, using estimates at age 40 to proxy lifetime levels of childless as as observed for U.S. women born 1914-1982 and as projected for U.S. women born 1983-1993. Our preliminary findings show: (1) high levels of agreement between estimates from these three sources, (2) marked delays across cohorts in the ages in which fertility begins, but (3) only modest and non-monotonic trends in childless, with these levels of childlessness at age 40 corresponding to completed fertility at or near replacement. Our empirical findings thus contribute to debates on whether observed period trends in the U.S. total fertility rate do or do not provide compelling evidence that U.S. fertility is now below replacement.

Authors

• Lawrence L. Wu, New York University

• Marco Massimo Laghi, New York University/NYU-Shanghai

• Di Xin, New York University