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Cable News Coverage of the U.S.-Mexico Border and Public Opinion on Immigration
Sun, August 9, 2:00 to 3:00pm, TBAAbstract
After moving in a progressive direction for several decades, there was evidence of a rightward turn in American public opinion on immigration in recent years. Various theories have been put forth to explain this change, perhaps most notably the negative reaction to large numbers of migrants at the border during the Biden administration. While influxes in border communities or of bused immigrants in certain cities may help to facilitate this reaction, for most of the country, media coverage is likely the main way in which the public would be made aware of this substantial activity at the border. This therefore begs several questions about media coverage of the border, its relationship to actual immigration numbers, and whether activity at the border itself or media coverage of the border is what is driving public opinion. To answer these questions, I analyze cable news coverage of the U.S.-Mexico border from 2010-2024. I find that cable news coverage of the border and its correlation to actual numbers of border encounters has increased substantially since 2018, well before the surge in migration during the Biden administration. While the coverage is highest at Fox News, similar patterns also follow for CNN and MSNBC. Additionally, using data from the General Social Survey, I find evidence that cable news coverage of the border, not border encounters, is predictive of more negative attitudes toward immigration, particularly among those who say that they primarily receive their news from television. This appears to be driven by coverage on Fox News and MSNBC. This suggests that media coverage is more likely to drive public opinion on immigration than activity or “chaos” at the border, and that border coverage is not inevitably related to border activity.