Variability and Volatility in Local ECE Workforce

• In Event: Inequality, Poverty, and Mobility Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 19. Labor Market II

Abstract

Child care and early childhood programs are critical resources within local communities, supporting child development and household well-being. This study examines the variability and volatility of county-level early care and education (ECE) program capacity and employment during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyses draw on a unique national, county-level dataset containing information about ECE sector employment from 2007 to 2025, with attention to differences by county-level urbanicity, child poverty rates, and racial and ethnic composition. We find that county-level child care and ECE sectors experienced similar shocks due to the pandemic, regardless of location or demographic composition. Evidence suggests that child care employment and ECE programs rebounded from COVID-19 pandemic by late 2023 nationally. We also find substantial increases in average weekly earnings for private child care workers following the pandemic. Combined, these trends are consistent with evidence that pandemic relief funds stabilized the child care and ECE sectors at a critical point in the pandemic.
Increases in ECE employment and earnings, however, appear to taper off once the sunset of federal relief funding begins in late 2024. We also find that pandemic relief funds did not fundamentally alter county-level disparities in access to ECE establishments present prior to 2020. Subsequent analyses incorporating 2025 data will allow us to further assess the impact of the phase-out of relief funds as well as the effect of state-level investments in ECE programming. We also will incorporate a case study analysis of three counties in Washington State to present a closer look at how counties’ use of pandemic relief dollars was associated with changes in child care availability and local labor market conditions. Findings have implications for the future study of ECE provision and employment, as well as policy intended to promote more resilient local ECE sectors and more equitable access to ECE.

Authors

• Julia Karon, University of Washington

• Scott W. Allard, University of Washington

• Taryn Morrissey, American University