Queer Belonging during Trump 1.0: Racial Differences in Response to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

• In Event: Sociology of Sexualities Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 5: Sexuality, Belonging, and Community

Abstract

This study examines how the 2016 U.S. presidential election shaped lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults’ sense of belonging to the queer community. Although political shocks are known to affect marginalized groups’ well-being, we know less about how they reshape internal community attachment over time. The timing of baseline data collection in the Generations study (March 2016–March 2017) provides a quasi-experimental opportunity to examine Donald Trump’s unexpected election as an exogenous political shock. Using longitudinal data from the Generations study (2016–2019), I leverage this temporal discontinuity in an interrupted time series design and random-effects models to assess both immediate and longer-term changes in community belonging following Donald Trump’s election. I test two competing explanations. A cumulative disadvantage framework predicts that multiply marginalized individuals, such as queer people of color, would experience the sharpest declines in belonging under political threat. Alternatively, an institutional reliance perspective asserts that individuals historically centered in mainstream LGBTQ+ movements may experience greater disruption if their belonging is tied to institutional recognition and state protections. My results show that the 2016 election coincided with a significant immediate decline in community belonging overall. However, this effect varied by race. White and Hispanic LGB adults experienced declines, while Black LGB adults showed increases in belonging after the 2016 election. These findings contradict a simple cumulative disadvantage expectation, suggesting that community attachments less dependent on formal institutional inclusion may prove more resilient during periods of overt political hostility.

Author

• Ryann Williams, Rice University