Affective Sentiments and Voting Behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election

• In Event: Putting Social Psychology to Work in Challenging Times

Abstract

Americans’ interpersonal networks have become increasingly segregated by education, income, race, and religiosity, providing the micro foundations for the development of divergent political attitudes (Rawlings 2022). We explore the possibility that those segregated social networks also create the micro foundations for the development of divergent affective sentiments (evaluation, potency, and activity) tied to political concepts (Roberts et al. Forthcoming) and, in turn, help explain variations in voting patterns. More specifically, we explore the way that eight demographic attributes (religious affiliation, race, education, age, gender, income, party affiliation, and marital status) affect the distance between the affective sentiments that voters see in the concept of “a president” and the affective sentiments they see in the 2024 presidential candidates (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump). We then examine the extent to which that distance mediates the effect of those demographic attributes on their intended vote choice (Harris vs. Trump). We also compare the power of the affective distance mediator to two alternative mediators: political ideology and relative partisan identity. We find the affective distance mediates the intended voting behavior of Protestant, Non-Hispanic White, and Republican in the 2024 election. While political ideology and partisan identity remain salient mediators of the effect of demographic attributes on intended voting behavior, the findings show divergent political sentiment amongst demographic groups may explain contemporary voting patterns in the United States.

Authors

• Anthony Roberts, Colorado State University

• Kait Boyle, University of South Carolina-Columbia

• Amy Kroska, University of California-Riverside

• Chase B. Meyer, Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina