Why Autocratization in Democratic Societies Proves Hard to Resist: Three ‘Mobilization-Dampening’ Mechanisms

• In Event: Mobilization Under (Growing) Autocracy

Abstract

While authoritarian regimes are historically vulnerable to long trajectories of effective resistance and rapid collapses sparked by mass mobilization, anti-authoritarian resistance within democratic and quasi-democratic states is uniquely imperiled. Grounded in a decade of primary research on "democratic downgrading" and pro-democracy resistance in the United States and Hungary, alongside comparisons with historical anti-authoritarian movements, this paper outlines why resistance movements often fail in backsliding democracies, despite higher levels of civil rights and visibility. It forms part of a larger book-length research project on international conservative social movements and regime change in democracies.
Drawing on a paired comparison of autocratization in the US and Hungary, alongside wider ‘shadow’ comparisons to other nations pursuing anti-democratic trajectories, I outline three prominent mechanisms that stifle collective action against rising authoritarians:

The Opportunity Paradox:
Democratic political infrastructures encourage negotiation with power holders, making it difficult to form large-scale negative coalitions. As the paper’s underpinning research shows, bargaining with an illiberal regime often legitimizes a government hostile to the social contract and ties up valuable movement resources.
International Resilience:
Autocratizing democratic governments possess wide networks of international support, benefiting from both stable relations with other democracies and an active, cross-national export of authoritarian techniques, such as the strategic "blueprint" honed in Hungary.
Democratic Shielding:
Anti-autocratization movements often struggle to overcome the democratic mandate of a dominant regime, even when state capture involves redrawn electoral maps and packed courts. State powerholders successfully frame resistance as an undemocratic minority attempting to subvert the "will of the people" expressed through the ballot box.

This paper concludes by theorizing how to counteract these mechanisms. Overcoming democratic shielding and the opportunity paradox requires movements to refuse bargaining, fight pervasive autocratization across all sectors of civil society, and prioritize defending democratic practices over mere electoral victories.

Author

• Benjamin Abrams, University College London