Canary in the Coal Mine

• In Event: Spatial Mechanisms in Social Life

Abstract

Urban communities can significantly influence residents’ and visitors’ well-being. Conventional urban sociology often designates residents as “neighborhood experts” due to their proximity and familiarity with their home areas. Paradoxically, this proximity can engender biased perspectives, which clouds the objectivity of residents’ expertise. In this paper, I test whether non-resident visitors, akin to canaries in the coal mine, may perceive signs of social disorganization eluding residents. Leveraging smartphone-derived data from a representative sample of older adults in Chicago, I find systematic differences between residents’ and non-residents’ trust assessments of neighborhoods. The findings reveal a nuanced relationship between this perception gap and future levels of neighborhood disorganization. Consistent with the Canary Hypothesis, tracts rated as less trustworthy by visitors compared to residents subsequently experience higher levels of Vice crimes (e.g., narcotics, prostitution). Paradoxically, this same perception gap predicts lower future levels of property crime.

Author

• Nathalia Santos, Cornell University