Receiving Homelessness Services in Structurally Disadvantaged Neighborhoods: A Case of Compounded Deprivation in Transitions to Adulthood?

• In Event: Demography of Housing Inequality and Instability

Abstract

Transition‑aged youth (TAY; ages 18–24) face heightened risks of housing instability and recurrent homelessness, yet little research examines how place-based structural disadvantage may compound these risks. This study investigates whether TAY who receive homelessness services in Los Angeles County’s most structurally disadvantaged areas -- Central and South Los Angeles -- experience a higher risk of recurrent homelessness than otherwise similar youth served elsewhere in the county. Central and South Los Angeles are historically disinvested areas characterized by elevated crime and policing, limited job opportunities, and constrained access to services, making them emblematic of “compounded deprivation” during the transition to adulthood. To empirically examine these possibilities, I examine more than a decade of geocoded administrative data from the county’s Homelessness Management Information System (HMIS), focusing on service spells initiated by 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds between 2013 and 2023 (N = 73,701). Linear probability models based on these data estimate whether individuals return to emergency shelter or street outreach services within two years of starting a CoC service, suggesting ongoing housing insecurity. Descriptive analyses confirm that CoC services received in the most structurally disadvantaged areas of L.A. County are 11 percentage points more likely to result in recurrent homelessness (30% vs. 19%). To assess whether this disparity reflects contextual rather than compositional effects, I use inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to balance covariates between youth served inside versus outside of the most disadvantaged areas. Even after adjustment, the spatial disparity in risk remains large and statistically significant (29% vs. 21%), suggesting a plausibly causal place‑based effect. Future work will examine heterogeneity by program type and apply additional causal strategies, including individual fixed‑effects models, to further probe mechanisms underlying place‑based disparities in TAY recurrent homelessness risk.

Author

• Jared N. Schachner, University of Southern California