Publicized State Violence: Illiberalism, the United States’ Lethal Boat Strikes, and Public Opinion (Pre-Analysis Plan)

• In Event: Democratic Backsliding and the Erosion of Human Rights (Co-sponsored by Political Sociology Section)

Abstract

The culmination of democratic backsliding and shifting media technologies is leading many governments to reconsider their style of public communication. A growing trend is to publicize state violence rather than conceal it. Such is the case with the United States government posting videos on social media of their lethal extrajudicial strikes against alleged drug traffickers abroad since September 2, 2025. We anticipate that the effects of watching such a video on one's support for state violence diverges by gender, national origin, and political behavior, but we remain neutral on the average effects. Our nationally representative survey experiment of U.S. respondents ($n \approx 4,500$), which we are scheduled to field in late March 2026, tests the effects of exposure to such a post, and a vignette experiment varies state justifications to ascertain mechanisms. Our findings will address how publicized state violence informs people's political declarations as illiberal, "strongman" styles of communication and punitive enforcement practices return to the forefront during the contemporary era of democratic backsliding.

Authors

• Julian Gerez, University of California, Irvine

• Jeffrey Swindle, University of California, Irvine