The Crime Drops: An Investigation into Crime Drop I and Crime Drop II

• In Event: Static and Dynamic Influences of Neighborhood Demography on Crime

Abstract

While a great deal of attention has been given to the crime drop of the 1990s (Crime Drop I), less is known about a second crime drop that occurred in the later part of the 2000s (Crime Drop II). Unlike the first one, the second crime drop is argued to be shorter in duration (approximately 2006-2011) and possibly limited to specific large U.S. cities (e.g., New York) and violent crimes. The goal of this paper is to explore the differences/similarities in Crime Drop I and Crime Drop II and to examine the role structural features and crime control strategies play in these two distinct longitudinal trends. Using homicide data on the large sample of U.S. cities from 1980 to 2011, we investigate the characteristics and causes of both crime drops. That is, after identifying the two longitudinal trends, we examine if structural predictors commonly used in homicide research (e.g., poverty, residential instability, population characteristics, percent Latino) or indicators of crime control strategies (police force size, incarceration rates) contribute to the two major temporal homicide trends in U.S. history.

Authors

• Karen F. Parker, University of Delaware

• Ashley Mancik, University of Delaware

• Richard Stansfield, Rutgers University