Red State, Blue State: A Longitudinal Analysis of National Firearms Interest

• In Event: Looking Down the Barrel: Analyses of Gun Issues in America

Abstract

Never before in the history of the United States has interest in firearms been so great as it has for the past ten years. Following the sun-setting of the 1994 assault weapons ban, pent up demand released a huge run on the purchase of new firearms of all types. Since that time there have been several mass shooting tragedies with their accompanying public and political response and two presidential elections in which the gun control debate was a focus. In this longitudinal study of national firearms interest, using the National Instant Checks System volume as an analog for that interest, we examine the steadily rising interest in firearms. Using a Bayesian mixed-model approach, we study years nested in states to examine the role of voting behavior and Brady score on the growth in firearms interest. In particular we model the impact of a state voting "red" or "blue" on the growth trajectory for interest in firearms.

Author

• Isaac T. Van Patten, Radford University