Tides of Change? The Effect of Flood on Informal Social Control and Neighborhood Property Crime

• In Event: Mechanisms of Neighborhood Informal Social Control

Abstract

Evidence suggests that crime at the level of the neighborhood is relatively stable over time. High crime areas tend to remain high due, at least in part, to neighborhood composition, social processes and opportunities for crime. Yet some research indicates that crime trends may be influenced by an exogenous disruption to the population composition. In January 2011 Brisbane, Australia experienced a major flood event. It impacted over 175,000 people, and resulted in $7.5 billion dollars damage. This paper evaluates the impact of the flood event on property crime in Brisbane neighborhoods by calculating deviation from forecast trajectories of crime post-flood and examining neighborhood level predictors of this deviation in both flooded and non-flooded neighborhoods. Using survey data from 4403 living in 148 flooded and non-flooded neighborhoods, this paper also considers whether or not pre-flood levels of neighborhood informal social control and/or opportunities for crime are associated with deviation from expected crime trajectory post flood.

Author

• Renee L. Zahnow, University of Queensland