The Impact of Natural Disasters on Terrorism in the Philippines and Turkey 1987-2012

• In Event: Vulnerabilities to Terrorism

Abstract

Acts of terrorism along with natural disasters have the ability to create a climate of fear and a sense of powerlessness for a given population at all societal levels (Peek and Sutton, 2003; Flynn, 2008). While destructive in their own right, previous research has argued that natural disasters also provide the catalyst for acts of terrorism (Berrebi and Ostwald, 2011), further complicating the vital role that state actions hold in the response to a natural disaster. As responses to natural disasters by a state are not uniform (Perry and Lindell, 2003), the response to a natural disaster may present a unique situation for a state, through the perceived adequacy of its response, to alter the rational incentives for a group to engage in subsequent acts of terrorism. Comparing the experiences of the Philippines and Turkey between 1987 and 2012 as a case study, this presentation explores the link between the occurrence of natural disasters, government actions, and subsequent acts of terrorism. Framed within theories of rational choice, this presentation explores how the perceived adequacy of a state’s response to a given disaster may impact future acts of terrorism.

Authors

• Daren Fisher, University of Maryland

• Laura Dugan, University of Maryland