Turning Points in Developmental Trajectories of Gang Membership: The Same Events with Differential Effects?

• In Event: The Impact of Becoming a Parent on Offending and Desistence

Abstract

Prior research has indicated that gang membership status (e.g. onset/desistance) is an important “turning point” for criminal behavior and other life trajectories. However, an important but rarely examined issue is what time-varying covariates or life events may re-direct long term trajectories of gang membership as an exogenous variable. To date, far more is known about individuals’ transition into gangs than their transition out of gangs. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study (RYDS), the current study adopts Nagin’s semi-parametric, group-based trajectory analysis to examine the potential mitigating effects of having a first child and a change of daily routine activities on developmental trajectories of gang membership. In addition, the current study tests whether the impact estimates for turning points vary across trajectory groups. This two-stage analysis distinguishes the existence of a life turning point and its intensity conditional upon existence—a distinction that is important for many criminological investigations.

Authors

• Beidi Dong, University of Florida

• Marvin Krohn, University of Florida

• Chris Gibson, University of Florida

• Terence P. Thornberry, University of Maryland