Predicting Crime After Disaster

• In Event: From Historic Forensics to Contemporary Criminology: State Control, Crime Prevention, and Disaster

Abstract

Hurricane Katrina gave researchers the opportunity to develop a criminology of disaster because of her scope, and because of the amount of empirical work that exists about the catastrophe. There is concrete evidence that crime occurred during Katrina such as fraud, looting, domestic violence, sexual assault, and drug trafficking (for examples, see Harper and Frailing, 2015). Therefore, a more robust criminology of disaster is needed. I will identify specific predictors of crime in the context of disaster. The predictors are: concentration of disadvantaged people, the pre-event context of crime, the stability of law enforcement, the socio-cultural context, and the magnitude of the event. To illustrate this framework, I will use the three blackouts that occurred in New York City in 1965, 1977, and 2003. I will then discuss New Orleans in the context of Hurricane Katrina, and St. Croix in the context of Hurricane Hugo. Crime occurred in New York City only during the 1977 blackout, and also in New Orleans during Katrina, and St. Croix during Hugo. A better understanding of crime and disaster will enable emergency response to better anticipate needs and allocate resources.

Author

• Bethany Van Brown, Loyola University New Orleans