Gun production and prevalence across the U.S.: Explaining Spatial-temporal correlates, links and patterns

• In Event: Multidisciplinary Tools and Approaches to Organised Crime Research

Abstract

The U.S. is the world’s largest producer, owner, importer and exporter of guns. This paper quantitatively assesses five useful ideas at the subnational level (states) aiming to support tangible anti-violence, anti-trafficking and crime prediction and crime prevention intervention models. First, it evaluates to what extent available gun-ownership surveys are correlated with gun-production reported by the manufacturers to the U.S. ATF. Second, it weights which variables (crime, socioeconomic data, education, geography, political preferences etc.) better explain gun-production differences across the U.S. Third, it discusses whether gun production actually clusters geographically and temporally. Fourth, it evaluates to what extent gun markets specialise in specific gun types or models. Fifth, it evaluates the role played by the Assault Weapon Expiration (AWB) in 2004 and the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) in 2005 on these dynamics. Finally, it discusses how these findings could be useful for the prediction of several expressions of gun-related violence, such as terrorism, international illegal trafficking, gang/domestic attacks or mass shootings.

Author

• David Perez Esparza, University College London