The Influence of Community Areas, Neighborhood Clusters, and Street Segments on the Spatial Variability of Violent Crime in Chicago

• In Event: Strategic Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Crime Patterns

Abstract

The influence of three hierarchical spatial units of analysis – street segments, neighborhood clusters, and community areas – on the spatial variability of violent crime incidents in Chicago is assessed. This analysis seeks to replicate Steenbeek and Weisburd’s (2015) research that found street segments, rather than larger units of analysis, accounted for the largest share of the spatial distribution of crime in The Hague, Netherlands. We analyze violent crime incident reports between 2001 and 2014. 455,880 incidents were geocoded to 41,926 street segments nested within 342 neighborhood clusters, in turn nested within 76 community areas in Chicago. Linear mixed models with random slopes of time were estimated to observe the variance uniquely attributed to each unit of analysis. Similar to Steenbeek and Weisburd, we find that some 56-65% of the total variability in violent crime incidents can be attributed to street segments in Chicago. City-wide reductions in violence over the observation period coincide with increases in the spatial variability attributed to street segments and decreases in the spatial variability attributed to neighborhoods. Our results suggest that scholars interested in understanding the spatial variation of crime across urban landscapes should be focused on the small places that comprise larger geographic areas.

Authors

• Cory Schnell, Rutgers University

• Anthony A. Braga, Northeastern University

• Eric L. Piza, John Jay College of Criminal Justice